Green Economics

This article introduces the concept of ecological squeeze as a conceptual framework for explaining indirect ecological impacts in regional socio-ecological systems during the post-conflict period. The primary aim of the study is to move beyond interpreting the ecological consequences of armed conflicts solely through direct damages - such as soil contamination, biodiversity loss and infrastructure destruction - and instead to analyze them as processes of spatial redistribution of resource pressures. Using the Armenia-Azerbaijan confrontation as an illustrative empirical context, the paper examines the interrelations among forced displacement, shifts in territorial control, transformations in land use and vegetation dynamics. The research employs a multi-source and multi-method approach, integrating demographic indicators, agricultural and land-use statistics, irrigation load data, as well as NDVI indices derived from Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery for the Aran region. Findings indicate that the concentration of population and economic activity in specific areas can generate uneven anthropogenic pressures on land and water resources, thereby altering regional ecological balances. The article argues that the ecological squeeze framework serves as a valuable analytical model that bridges conflict ecology, environmental security and green recovery perspectives. At the same time, it emphasizes that observed changes must be assessed alongside alternative drivers such as climate variability, agrarian reforms, subsidy mechanisms and irrigation policies. Consequently, the study offers a novel theoretical and applied perspective for the South Caucasus, proposing that post-conflict ecological governance should be based not only on restoration but also on anticipatory evaluation of resource redistribution. This approach provides a methodological foundation for future comparative research.